I hate polls – hate them like a fox. After nearly two years of digitally fornicating with RealClearPolitics.com (RCP), and more recently, fivethirtyeight.com and pollster.com, certain patterns have emerged. Patterns? Yes, that is the point of it all.
Since it is a forgone conclusion that all who are intelligent distrust polls, why do we keep following them? Imagine a stage production involving political polls, their media outlets and audience. The sublime hilarity is surely worthy of Monty Python or at the very least a recurring SNL routine. Imagine for a moment...
News Anchor:And now to the latest polls. Candidate A with hoobity percent and candidate B with doobity percent. Let’s go to our analysts who will help us digest these figures.
Analyst A:Clearly this is just a poll. Just last week the hoobity and the doobity were reversed. Polls can’t be trusted America.
Analyst B: While I agree that polls are not everything, they do mean something, and as we all know, doobity is more than hoobity…A would have believe that this is mere coincidence.
Analyst A: When Candidate A bounces back next week after a stirring set of commercials featuring rural mechanics and janitors, B will regret those words.
Analyst B: Sounds like excuses to me America. The polls speak for themselves.
News Anchor:There you have it America. I should note that Analyst A and Analyst B are in no way associated with Candidate A and Candidate B, how ever their last names might bear a resemblance.
People, including this author, are fickle – some more than others, but in the end, we are drops in a tidal ebb and flow that follows that whims and fancies of two idiots dancing on stage. John Stewart summed it up best in 2004 when indicating that we must of course take into consideration the poll's “margin of error of completely wrong”
But that would make me the bigger fool for following the play-by-play of this foolish game for nearly two years. Polls are political pornography. The print versions are nice to have on camping trips when you have a few minutes to kill, but the internet has unleashed its harder, better, faster, stronger (and more addictive) incarnation.
If a sign of the times is the immediacy of information, then online polls are at the heart of today’s emerging media. So what? The relative newness of the medium has enabled a few tricks that have gone relatively unnoticed. RCP for example has recently indicated a small surge for John McCain. RCP is a poll aggregator, a compiler of articles and essays as well as a producer of original opinion articles as well. What RCP does not do is analyze who does the polling and how they do it. Polls, pure and simple…or rather, real clear. It is not the fault of RCP that they do not digest the polls for its readers. In a 24 hour news cycle, the best means of feigning neutrality is presenting undigested data. A close look at the most recent polls shows that almost all of McCain’s gains were compiled by Fox News, the American Research Group (ARG) and Mason-Dixon. Further digging reveals that these three pollsters, especially the latter two almost always give the conservative candidate a bump of a few percentage points. Polls in Ohio and Virginia over the four weeks show Obama ahead in every single poll, except in those conducted by this conservative triumvirate – patterns!
Let me be real clear here. This is not a conservative conspiracy. Both sides play the game – the conservatives are merely more organized and concerted in their efforts. CBS polls almost always slant towards the progressive candidate. But the slew of Fox News, ARG and Mason Dixon polls released in battleground states on the day before the election were certainly no accident. We all love a good competition. Down to the wire yet again. Anything less would be uncivilized.
Poll analysis is an emerging science that will only gain momentum with each passing election. To say that they are imperfect is missing the point. No matter how many times it is beat into our heads, plumbers from the Midwest do not offer the most objective and honest picture of “real America”. As much as I distrust ARG and Fox News, I would rather listen to them than Joe the Plumber. Public anger towards polls is more a result of our inability to question data. People are easily questionable. Numbers do not lie. If they do not lie, then why are they so often wrong? When we cannot cope with such mysteries, we blame the medium itself and vent.
The importance of polls will only increase. There are two potential paths we may take as a country. We may apply a greater degree of scrutiny, thereby allowing us to digest the numbers in a more meaningful manner so as to inform our decisions. Or we will all become addicts of political fantasy sports and allow the horse race to dominate our public intellectual space. But polls are not going anywhere. Like porn, if polls were worthless, we would have abandoned them long ago.
For all your sports fans out there, here are my predictions:
Obama: 353 Electoral Votes
McCain: 185 Electoral Votes
Bob Barr: Winner of the 2008 Ralph Nader Lifetime Achievement Scapegoat Award
Until now Barack Obama’s broad appeal has been his ability to transcend a race-based candidacy. Those outside the United States were often surprised to find out that his viability among Black Americans was less certain than among White Americans (among Democrats at least). The most common question - “Is this man Black enough for the African American community?”
The race monster in America has a way of drawing in participants no matter how sincerely they attempt to avoid it. Like potholes covered over with paper, the racial troughs of American society are simply waiting for a passerby to fall in – often by a push.
Hillary Clinton’s recently remarked that “Dr King’s dream began to be realized when President Lyndon Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It took a president to get it done.” Perhaps a forgivable gaffe except for the reason it was given. The ever calculative Clinton machine does not proceed on whimsy. Every word, tear and blink is a choreographed advertisement for a sociopolitical product. Why did she choose to say these words, and why now?
Firstly, I must posit that the content of the comment is not nearly as charged as the debate surrounding it. Irrespective of the legislative particulars of the civil rights movement/Amendment, there is no doubt that social justice movements are dead without political leverage. What is bothersome is the race-bating tactics that have been used in order to draw in a candidate who has built a base of support on very non-racial grounds.
A comment like that of Senator Clinton is not the sort that can be ignored. The circus commentary that is our media coverage would undoubtedly spin any failure to respond as relative weakness to Clinton’s assertiveness, especially just before the South Carolina primary in which half of the expected Democratic voters are Black. After the bait was laid, Obama essentially had no choice but to respond, after which, the debates turned into a competition of who is better for the African American community. Given our 24/7 news frenzy, by simply participating in such a dialogue, Senator Obama’s role as the race-based candidate is being amplified to a point of inaccuracy.
If poll figures are any measure, Obama seems set to win the battle over South Carolina, but the victory has come at a huge cost that will do irreparable damage to his national campaign. By engaging Mrs. Clinton in these race debates, Obama has lost the one thing that set him apart from all previous African American candidates for national office – he did not emphasize his Black identity. Now many more Americans than did a few weeks ago, will view Obama as just another Black candidate.
Surely this points out a fear among White Americans to vote into office someone who is “too Black”, but surely this is not a surprise. What I do not hear about much these days though is the extent to which the MLK/LBJ comment was most probably a calculated effort to paint Obama as the “Black Candidate” in the run-up to the South Carolina primary.
The Clinton camp has masterfully played to the fears of White America while simultaneously handing out her long list of Black friends. Bill Clinton was the country's first Black President? After Reagan and Bush Sr. he might as well have been labeled the countries first Chinese President as well. Even if Clinton loses South Carolina, she has succeeded in caricaturing Obama as another oversensitive African American candidate who gets all up in arms any time somebody says the smallest thing about race. How can we vote into office such a touchy self-victimizing Black guy? For Clinton, South Carolina is a small price to pay for the rest of White America.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than being racist is being a little racist.
There should be no surprise if a vast majority of readers (all twelve of you) are successful in determining what "mania" we are amidst. "He who shall not be named" is the sort of character that excites one into a girlish fervor - assuming you are male. He does something so devastating to the female psyche that Japanese cartoons are starting to feel jealous of all the adrenaline flowing and neurons firing.
If he were to wear a pink suit, it would be a bit like Neopolitan ice-cream, and just as cool. If he started to wear a pin of a Kenyan flag in order to express international solidarity, the Chinese factories churning them out would struggle to meet the demand of his followers. Two thousand years from now, children in middle school will debate as to whether or not he was Black or White.
So many were flirting with the possibility but it took a bunch of Iowan red-necks (that's what my Caucasian friends called them) to show us that the water is just fine and the time is just right to take a swim. So many were scared to wear the t-shirt out of fear that they would never catch on, but now half the country is storming the stores to get the first edition - yet more work for the Chinese.
I don't hear much about outsourcing these days. That's a shame really because that discussion four years ago was the most action us Brown folk have seen at the national stage. Would be nice to have that back to take the attention away from more tragic news from Desiland.
This is civic intoxication. A socio-political orgasm of sorts. A little voice in the back of our minds reminds us that we might have a hangover after all this is over. Almost eight years ago, half the country was in a euphoria of their own. More than half of us felt good with a feel-good guy and went with our gut. We've woken up with that taste in our mouths that makes us question - did I throw up last night? The floor and bedsheets leave no indication, so without any proof, you see no problem in jumping on another musical float - a band wagon one might say. But this one seems a little different.
The news media is certainly biased. For the first time in years, the anchors and correspondents are trying to hide the smiles thatares desperately trying to escape from their faces that have been atrophied in place for so many years.
Many intelligent Americans still oppose the horse-race approach to politics, but for one day, they indulged in the poll results, witnessed the tectonic shifts and simply celebrated. Zeitgeist!
As if a Big Mac was not enough. We Americans are not satisfied to have our ambrosia in the form of two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles onions on a sesame seed bun. I’m not sure when it came out, but after spending the greater part of the last three years in India, I found myself staring a new package of Doritos in the supermarket last week. It sounds more like a fighter jet, but the X-13D tastes a lot more like America’s favorite sandwich.
On the face of it there is nothing wrong with corn chip that tastes like a burger, but I wonder if this is really where we want to be headed. I’m an active proponent of blue-collar eating – while visiting my old office I glanced over at a few boxes of organic cereal and instinctively scowled and began chiding the woman who had put them out prompting a look of confusion that was teetering on the brink of being offended. While I may not have organic cereals and soy milk as staples of my diet, I think a hamburger flavored chip is something we can do without.
I may just be out of step with the trends of the time. I also recently encountered the Wendy’s Baconator…or maybe it was Baconator!!! In any case, there are three quarter-pounder patties and about six strips of bacon with a more modest serving of cheese and sauce. Even a professed meat-lover such as myself felt a bit humbled in front of the Baconator.
Perhaps this is what I get for eating at places like Burger King and Wendy’s on a nearly daily basis. There’s only so much side salad one can have…
Once a year, the President and Congress of the United States gather for one of the most choreographed spectacles in modern political tradition. Every word, inflection and blink are carefully planned and intended to deliver a particular message. This is the first time in his tenure that the President must give his State of the Union speech to a Congress controlled by the Democratic Party.
President Bush began by congratulating Nancy Pelosi on becoming the first female Speaker of the House of Representatives, and was greeted by a roar of applause from the crowd. The much anticipated “surge” was “explained”. Mr. Bush stated that he plans to opt for a more bi-partisan approach to governing for the last quarter of his Presidency – as if he had a choice.
For the television audience, the most irritating aspect of the night is the barrage of applause that accompanies the speech. For comedians, this is the best opportunity to find material, for it is inevitable to avoid a few miscues, even with all the calculations. The President pauses, and waits for the clapping to begin only to realize that he must move on while a few loyal souls begin the late show of appreciation.
A few friends of mine from other countries ask why there is so much clapping. The only answer I have is that American politics is so diplomatic and politically correct within the domestic confines, that our representatives need some opportunity to vent. The British are known for screaming and pounding on their desks in the Hall of Parliament. The Taiwanese are no strangers to physical altercations while the assembly is actually in session. Everybody was Kung Fu fighting. Notice the political correctness ends at our borders.
Apparently this year's installment of the State of the Union was milder than in previous years. The carefully selected cues for the members of Congress to stand up an applaud were fewer in number than any of Bush's State previous speeches.
This year was full of moments to cherish forever. At one point, the President pointed towards and spoke of NBA star Dikembe Motombo, who had sneeked his way next to the First Lady for a well crafted photo opportunity showing the towering center standing beside Laura Bush. Motombo is well known for the charitable work that he has done in his native Congo. The best part of it was that Mr. Motombo, who is well over seven feet tall was also standing next to Secretary of Labor, Elaine Chao, who looked about half his size, if that.
This brings back warm memories of when our President used his annual address to warn us of the dangers posed by steroids in sports. This was prior to his informal testimony in support of Raphael "juiced" Palmeiro.
Perhaps the President will use next year's speech as the appropriate time to talk about the unfinished third season of Chapelle Show.
But two moments, or lack thereof, stuck out in my mind. There was not one mention of Hurricane Katrina and the man-allowed tragedy that followed. The destruction of New Orleans is the defining failure of the American President and of the American people. And not one mention for the ruins of the once great city.
And finally, for those who watched the President walk his way out of the gallery, he was clearly visible signing autographs for members of Congress. As if the night was not already enough of a spectacle. An American tradition. An exercise in dignity. A work in progress.
In related news, the War in Iraq continues, healthcare costs continue to rise, the ice caps are melting, the debt is increasing, China is blowing up Satellites, and New Orleans in still in ruins. Maybe Dikembe can help us out.
For those of you who are not on the east coast of the US, winter has just begun and the reactions have so far been mixed. Everyone is bundling up and complaining about the bitter chill but expressing some relief that things are back to normal.
I once walked home from middle school wondering why my nuts were freezing only to discover that my fly had been open all the way home. I do not know how that relates but lets pretend it does.
I was watching "an inconvenient truth" by al gore a few days ago and was confronted with the dangers of living our current existence, which if left unchecked will move most of Greenland to New York harbor in the form of liquid water. In other news, Allstate Insurance has decided that they will no longer insure homes in the east Bronx as a result of hurricane risks. Perhaps they saw the movie as well. Maybe we just need to complain about the weather.
If the most powerful icebreaker of everyday conversation leaves us temporarily happy, then we are confronted with the need to blame our shitty moods on other things than the wind and rain. Ourselves perhaps? Would we really be happier in southern California? Or Bangalore for that matter? Do we really want mild climate and sun for most of the year? I for one grew up with my head in the boiler and my feet in the icebox.
I bet now is a wonderful time to buy property in Kansas. How about Mongolia? Apparently the jet stream can be shut down. All it needs is for enough ice to melt and cool down the north Atlantic and we'll all be living along the equators again. But only for a few hundred years - not a real ice age. That movie was retarded by the way. The first one begins when everything starts to freeze and in the sequel everything starts melting down? What kind of lame excuse for an ice age is this? Unless of course those creatures lived for thousands of years. If that's the case then it's the best movie since Groundhog Day. I wonder if inundation would lead to a reduction in crime in the Bronx. Is this a sign that we have been delaying space colonization for too long? I doubt it. Not enough third world countries with millions of starving children have sent up space probes for that to be plausible. But then again the space program gave us tang and Velcro. Yum and fun.
The Chinese have exploded their own satellite and the Americans are very worried. Word on the street is that the Chinese and the Russians have been trying to sign a weapons test ban treaty for years now and that the United States is unwilling to relinquish its "right" to blow things up in space. China appears to be exercising their right at the moment. The next step would be the match the American capacity to destroy orbiting satellites with ground-based lasers.
People who do not believe in global warming are often the people who do not believe in evolution. While speaking with family relation, who happens to hold a Master of Science in Zoology, I was informed that by the standards of evolution, the Amoeba is a more advanced species than a human. If the ability to stay alive – self-preservation, immortality for some, is the point of existence for a species, then our microorganism friends are much better at it than we sentient mammals are. After conceding that the Amoeba was a superior being to a human, I could not help but sit back in amazement at this zoologist challenge evolution – not to mention the Western conspiracy of global warming as a plot to keep the underdeveloped countries of the world…underdeveloped.
According to the New York Times, every year, about 80 cubic miles of Arctic ice melts into the Sea. At this rate, the global sea level will rise by one foot in about two centuries. But this rate is almost certain to increase. For one thing, the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere will only increase as India and China race to get their share of the petroleum pie. Americans will never learn to drive reasonable vehicles. But even more important is the fact that water absorbs more heat than ice. Ice is white and therefore reflects most of the sunlight. A frozen Arctic bounces these rays back into space. A melted Arctic is mostly blue and sometimes black – no chance to reflect. All the suns rays are absorbed and accelerate the melting of the Arctic ice.
Don’t even get me started on El Niño
I hope the yang of this winter's ying will be a nice July blizzard. Surf’s up cowboy!
